The Econometer Turns Blue, Good for the Democrats, Amidst a Crazy World (May 9, 2013)

It was a momentous month in the world, a month of disasters, both real and threatened.  President Obama was able to demonstrate strength as “First Healer” in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing, as well as patience and restraint with respect to North Korea nuclear threats and Syrian use of chemical weapons.  It was also a month for good economic data, all of which might have translated into significantly higher Obama approval numbers.  They were indeed very modestly higher, but the failure of the Senate to pass any gun control measures hurt him and his Democratic congressional colleagues as well, and thus the outcomes were a bit muted.  (See my April Month in Review for my update on all the major political events of the month at:  http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2013/05/april-month-in-review-startling.html)

The “Econometer” captures what was generally a good set of economic data for the past month.  The unemployment report not only was fairly robust in the private sector in April, but there were substantial upward job growth revisions to the February and March reports as well.  The unemployment rate thus fell to 7.5%.  Consumer confidence rose, and the GDP for the first quarter came in at 2.5%, well above the anemic 0.5% of the fourth quarter.  The Dow has soared to record highs, and even the price of gas has dropped to below Election Day levels.  In short, each measure movied in a positive direction this month.  None of this points to a dramatic recovery, but it also refutes the notion that we were having a third “spring slump” in succession.

Remember, the Econometer measures how the economy has moved since Election Day on the theory that positive news should benefit the Democrats come 2014.

Econometer	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Econometer	0.0		-11.9	0.6	-1.6	13.5
Unemployment Rate	7.9		7.9	7.7	7.6	7.5
Consumer Confidence	73.1		57.3	68.0	59.7	68.1
Price of Gas	3.71		3.45	3.79	3.75	3.62
Dow Jones	13,330		13,728	14,054	14,520	14,747
GDP	3.1		0.4	0.4	0.4	2.5

Obama’s approval rating nudged over 50% again, and is now a net +3.0 points, a bit better than Election Day.  This represents his highest level since February, although in general Obama’s approval rating has settled into the 50% range after the election.

Obama Approval Rating	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Approve	49.6		51.7	50.1	49.0	50.8
Disapprove	47.4		44.2	45.0	46.7	47.8
Net	2.2		7.5	5.0	2.3	3.0

The Democrats’ margin over the Republicans has narrowed to +2.4 points in the “generic ballot” for Congress.  You can see that the real change was that the Democrats lost three points to “don’t know”; the Republicans remained in the 38% range.  I think this could reflect some frustration with the gun law, which was widely supported by 60%+ of the electorate.  Perhaps they expected widespread Republican opposition but were surprised that several Democrats broke ranks.  It is interesting to note that the “don’t know” portion of the electorate is now over 20%, not exactly a vote of confidence for either party.

Generic Congressional Ballot	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Democrat	46.3		44.5	42.8	43.8	40.7
Republican	46.0		39.7	38.5	38.0	38.3
Net	0.3		4.8	4.3	5.8	2.4

There have been no new looks at 2016 so I will repeat last month’s data set and await new polls this coming month.  The headline:  it’s Hillary’s to lose at this point, and the Republican field is deep but split, with Marco Rubio holding a modest lead.

Presidential Preference - Dem.	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Clinton			58	58	64	64
Biden			19	19	18	18
Warren			8	8	5	5
Cuomo			3	3	3	3
Presidential Preference - Repub.	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Rubio			22	22	20	20
Paul, Rand			10	10	16	16
Christie			13	13	15	15
Ryan			15	15	15	15
Bush, Jeb			13	13	11	11
Huckabee			11	11	n/a	n/a
Head-to-Head	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Clinton			49	49	49	49
Rubio			41	41	42	42
Net Favorability - Dem. (among Dems)	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Clinton			69	69	79	79
Biden			67	67	62	62
Warren			40	40	25	25
Cuomo			20	20	22	22
Net Favorability - Repub. (Among Repubs)	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Ryan			69	69	62	62
Rubio			47	47	43	43
Paul, Rand			48	48	39	39
Bush, Jeb			47	47	33	33
Christie			15	15	9	9
Huckabee			59	59	n/a	n/a
Senate Projections	7-Nov		7-Feb	8-Mar	8-Apr	8-May
Total Forecast Democrat			50	50	50	50
Democrat Not Up			34	34	34	34
Demomcrat Solid			11	11	11	11
Democrat Leaning			5	5	5	5
Total Forecast Republican			50	50	50	50
Republican Not Up			31	31	31	31
Pepublican Solid			14	14	14	14
Republican Leaning			5	5	5	5
* Italics mean no new info from prior month