With this
post I unveil the “2.0” version of this blog, now known as borntorunthenumbers.com. We have fresh new sets of data designed to
shed light on the electoral prospects of the two parties in 2014 and 2016, as
well as pithy monthly updates of the political scene (ideal for anyone who
doesn’t have the time for the day-to-day blow-by-blow), and occasional issue
rants and data-dives.
At this
point I am focused on how the overall political and economic environment is
boding for 2014…do a broad set of polling and economic measures indicate that the
Democrats will pick up congressional seats in the midterms, or instead are they
losing their momentum from 2012? I’ll
update the measures discussed below monthly in 2013.
And of
course I will also report on early data relevant to the 2016 presidential
election because it is, um, fun to see it unfold.
Obama Approval Rating
President
Obama may be a lame duck but his approval rating is still a reasonable, though
imperfect, proxy for how people feel about the Democrats’ policies. Obama’s rating jumped a bit post-election
(everyone loves a winner – well, not everyone, but some people jumped on the
bandwagon) and got up to nearly 54% on average by early January, on the heels
of the “fiscal cliff” showdown. But it has trended down since, back almost
exactly to pre-election levels. Business
as usual in Washington
|
Obama
Approval Rating
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
Approve
|
49.6
|
52.1
|
53.5
|
51.7
|
50.1
|
49.0
|
|
Disapprove
|
47.4
|
44.0
|
41.8
|
44.2
|
45.0
|
46.7
|
|
Net
|
2.2
|
8.1
|
11.7
|
7.5
|
5.0
|
2.3
|
Generic Congressional Ballot
Pollsters
like to ask people who they would vote for in a non-named-candidate matchup
between Democrats and Republicans for Congress, the so-called “generic ballot.”
At this point, the Democrats are doing
reasonable well, ahead by about 6 points, a bit of an up-and-down pattern since
the election, but largely up. I would
surmise this is largely due to the continued widespread vilification of the
gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight Republican Party, the House specifically,
rather than any great love affair with the Democrats.
|
Generic
Congressional Ballot
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
Democrat
|
46.3
|
45.5
|
44.7
|
44.5
|
42.8
|
43.8
|
|
Republican
|
46.0
|
39.5
|
37.3
|
39.7
|
38.5
|
38.0
|
|
Net
|
0.3
|
6.0
|
7.3
|
4.8
|
4.3
|
5.8
|
The “Are We Better Off…?” "Econometer"
Allow me to
introduce the Econometer, a set of
measures designed to show how the economy has moved since Election Day, 2012,
with the presumption that an improving economic environment will help the
Democrats in 2014. Thus the measure
tries to answer the question famously posed by Ronald Reagan in the 1980
debates: “Are you better off than you
were four years ago?” (Structurally, it
is much like my “Obameter” scale, but is strictly tied only to economic
measures.)
I’ve picked
six measures (below) and created an index (a full explanation is along the
right hand column) that captures in one number – the “Econometer” – the state
of play. Essentially, as of now the economic
outlook is slightly worse than on Election Day, driven by lower consumer
confidence, rising gas prices and the tepid 4th Quarter GDP of 0.4%,
modestly offsetting lowered unemployment and a rising stock market. Net/net, no real change here.
|
Econometer
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
Econometer
|
0.0
|
-2.9
|
-5.1
|
-11.9
|
0.6
|
-1.6
|
|
Unemployment Rate
|
7.9
|
7.8
|
7.8
|
7.9
|
7.7
|
7.6
|
|
Consumer Confidence
|
73.1
|
71.5
|
64.6
|
57.3
|
68.0
|
59.7
|
|
Price of Gas
|
3.71
|
3.48
|
3.35
|
3.45
|
3.79
|
3.75
|
|
Dow Jones
|
13,330
|
12,865
|
13,215
|
13,728
|
14,054
|
14,520
|
|
GDP
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.4
|
The Senate
There
really aren’t many polls to look at as yet as some incumbents ponder retirement
(Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan
You can
check out my February 6th post for a quick rundown of the 10 states in play (www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2013/02/the-month-in-review-january-2013-bo-mo.html.) I’m not putting Michigan
As for the
House, it is early but it will take more positive movement on all of these
measures to being to even contemplate retaking the House. Democrats now hold 201 seats; they need 218
to win the House. Only 34 out of the 435
House elections in 2012 were decided by less than a 5% margin – that is really
the playing field. It’s really hideous
that fewer than 10% of seats are really in play, a testament to rampant
gerrymandering. These 34 races broke
both ways, so essentially the Dems would have to win ALL of them in 2012 to
have a razor-thin chance of getting to 218.
2014 Summary
Based on it
all, there has not been enough movement to suggest we are building toward a
large move away from the status quo in either direction. The Democrats are holding serve with
generally improved economic conditions supporting a reasonably popular
President. Qualitatively, while the
Republicans may be softening on immigration, they remain deeply unpopular and
still seen as slavishly devoted to the arch-conservative base who control their
gerrymandered districts and presidential primaries. One case in point: 90% of Americans believe in universal
background checks for gun ownership, yet there is a real possibility that even
this one measure will not survive the gun control legislation battle. And of course the majority of Americans also
favor more tax revenue from wealthy Americans versus more massive cuts to
address our fiscal woes. GOP leadership
– such as it is -- continues to struggle to turn their passion into a working
coalition that can solidify their grasp on the House and win the Senate in
2014. So far it has been an uphill
battle.
2016 Presidential Prospects
OK,
obviously it is too early for this. Or
is it? Nate Silver did a bit on how
early polling often defines the field and in many ways is predictive. (Here’s the link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/is-it-too-early-for-2016-polls/)
On the
Democratic side, it is obviously Hillary’s to lose if she wants it. She has an astonishing lead over Joe Biden at
this juncture.
What is
truly breathtaking, though, is the lack of depth in the field if Hillary
chooses not to run. Joe Biden would be
74 on Inauguration Day, a full five years older than Ronald Reagan was on his
Inauguration Day. Elizabeth Warren, the
Senator from Massachusetts and architect of the current consumer protection
laws, and Andrew Cuomo, the highly popular Governor of New York State (and son
of Mario, of course) are still little known, despite their relative prominence
and therefore have low “net favorability.”
“Net favorability” is the difference between positive and negative
favorability, and it is a good measure of both “awareness” and “attitudes among
those who are aware.” You need to be
known to be liked, and liked more than disliked among those who know you.
The rest of
the field? Pollsters are tracking the
following named, who collectively are capturing 6% of the vote: Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Mark Warner, Kirstin Gillebrand and Brian
Schweitzer. Do you know who they are?
|
Presidential
Preference - Dem.
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
|
|
61
|
57
|
58
|
58
|
64
|
|
Biden
|
|
12
|
16
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
8
|
5
|
|
Cuomo
|
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
Net
Favorability - Dems (among Dems)
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
|
|
76
|
64
|
69
|
69
|
79
|
|
Biden
|
|
66
|
51
|
67
|
67
|
62
|
|
|
|
33
|
34
|
40
|
40
|
25
|
|
Cuomo
|
|
16
|
16
|
20
|
20
|
22
|
On the
Republican side, it remains a large, tight field that, on balance, is far
stronger than the collection of colorful misfits that held court in
2011/12. Marco Rubio continues to hold a
tight lead, but Rand Paul surged with his filibustering histrionics, and Jeb
Bush stumbled out the gate on immigration.
The “net favorability” numbers are extremely interesting…Paul Ryan is
well ahead of the field, while Chris Christie is barely in positive territory.
|
Presidential
Preference - Repub.
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
Rubio
|
|
18
|
21
|
22
|
22
|
20
|
|
Paul, Rand
|
|
7
|
5
|
10
|
10
|
16
|
|
Christie
|
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
15
|
|
Ryan
|
|
12
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
|
Bush, Jeb
|
|
12
|
14
|
13
|
13
|
11
|
|
Huckabee
|
|
11
|
15
|
11
|
11
|
n/a
|
|
Net
Favorability - Repubs (among Repubs)
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
Ryan
|
|
59
|
65
|
69
|
69
|
62
|
|
Rubio
|
|
51
|
49
|
47
|
47
|
43
|
|
Paul, Rand
|
|
31
|
35
|
48
|
48
|
39
|
|
Bush, Jeb
|
|
49
|
44
|
47
|
47
|
33
|
|
Christie
|
|
21
|
15
|
15
|
15
|
9
|
|
Huckabee
|
|
58
|
55
|
59
|
59
|
n/a
|
So, at this
stage, taking the two front-runners head-to-head, Hillary Clinton is 7 full
points ahead of Marco Rubio. In fact,
the best candidate the Republicans can offer in the general election, at this
point, is Chris Christie, who is the only Republican who beats Joe Biden (and
he does so easily, 49-40) and comes within 5 points of Hillary (he loses
46-42).
|
Head-to-Head
|
7-Nov
|
7-Dec
|
7-Jan
|
7-Feb
|
8-Mar
|
8-Apr
|
|
|
|
|
51
|
49
|
49
|
49
|
|
Rubio
|
|
|
37
|
41
|
41
|
42
|
Back soon
with more!
