Is this
1965 again? Yes, that is the
question. Yankee fans of a certain age –
those of us who barely caught the tail end of the vaunted Yankee Dynasty from
1921 to 1964 -- remember that awful year well, when the Yanks suddenly aged and
fell to sixth place (and, worse, 10th and last in 1966).
The 2013
Yankees’ weaknesses have been well-documented, quite breathlessly, in
fact. The departed Nick Swisher, Russell
Martin, Eric Chavez, Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones took with them 94 homers and
a good deal of clubhouse leadership. With
Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson on the DL for
varying periods, another 100 homers are at risk. For pitching the Yanks are relying on three
ancient craftsmen – Hideki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera -- to play
crucial roles. The gap fillers are a
bunch of guys who might make some all-decade teams – a decade ago. All of that – with Robinson Cano as the only
Yankee who is: a) a star, b) in his
prime, and c) not coming off surgery.
But I
actually do not see this as 1965 Redux. My
fearless prediction: the Yanks will win 90
games. This is indeed my weakest
prediction in 21 years, but one that still leaves them in the hunt for the AL
East and the wild card. Before I
explain, a little background…
THE
MODEL
For those
of you new to this, I developed a regression model to predict Yankee wins back
in 1992, and since then I have used it with gusto and achieved a rather mixed
track record. In over 21 years, I have
never been “right on” and on average have been off by 6.4 wins per year, with
14 of those years off on the optimistic side.
Year
|
Prediction
|
Actual
|
+/-
|
2012
|
102
|
95
|
-7
|
2011
|
95
|
97
|
2
|
2010
|
103
|
95
|
-8
|
2009
|
95
|
103
|
8
|
2008
|
99
|
89
|
-10
|
2007
|
102
|
94
|
-8
|
2006
|
101
|
97
|
-4
|
2005
|
102
|
95
|
-7
|
2004
|
108
|
101
|
-7
|
2003
|
103
|
101
|
-2
|
2002
|
101
|
103
|
2
|
2001
|
91
|
95
|
4
|
2000
|
98
|
87
|
-11
|
1999
|
109
|
98
|
-11
|
1998
|
104
|
115
|
11
|
1997
|
97
|
96
|
-1
|
1996
|
98
|
92
|
-6
|
1995
|
101
|
89
|
-12
|
1994
|
95
|
100
|
5
|
1993
|
92
|
88
|
-4
|
1992
|
81
|
76
|
-5
|
The model
itself has its roots in Bill James (and Yankees GM in the early 90’s, Gene
“Stick” Michael), seriously predating Billy Beane and the Moneyball guys. Those guys knew all about on base percentage
and the like, but they lacked the modeling and wealth of data available in this
century.
My model
essentially has two variables, one for hitting, one for pitching. The hitting variable is fairly fancy: “OPS”,
which is the sum of on base percentage plus slugging
percentage. This is a variable that,
21 years ago, only the real die-hards calculated (with slide rules and
abacuses). Now it is the hitters’ “one
true measure” that you can find everywhere.
The pitching variable is more straightforward: ERA. Basically, I come up with a prediction for
each team’s overall OPS and ERA and plug those numbers into the regression
equation I developed (using 20 years of historical data) and voila, a forecast
for Team Wins.
The
difficult part is to actually come up with the forecast for OPS and ERA for
each team. Here it gets a bit
“granular”: I make a prediction for OPS
(or ERA) for each player on the team roster, and then also predict their
number of plate appearances (or innings pitched). Then I multiply the OPS (or ERA) by that
player’s percentage of the team’s total plate appearances (or innings pitched),
and then add up all the players to get to the total team. Ah, the wonders of weighted averages!
So
let’s say Robinson Cano had an OPS of .929, and he has been between ..871 and
.929 for the last 4 years. It is
reasonable to conclude he will do about the same this year. And I expect him to have about 700 plate
appearances this year (he’s averaged 687 of late), which is about 10.4% out of
the Yankees total (of about 6,250 expected team plate appearances). I multiply the .929 times 10.4% to get .097, and
then do the same thing for the other Yankees players, and add them all up to
get the team OPS. That process typically
yields a team OPS number between .700 (say, for the Twins) and .800 (say, for
the Red Sox). Brute force, but it works
pretty well!
And
I do the same thing to predict team ERA….CC will have a 3.40 ERA in 200
innings, and I do the same math for pitchers.
I end up with a Team OPS and a Team ERA which I plug into my equation
and out pops Team Predicted Wins.
2012
YANKEES (in review)
Let’s go back to last year. It was a typical season for me in many
ways: I predicted 102 wins and they came
in with 95. Off by 7 wins, and my miss
was on the optimistic side.
I was right on with my hitting prediction: their actual Team OPS of .790 was barely off
my predicted .787. The “starters” were
right on: .804 predicted, .804
actual. The subs, led by Chavez, were
better than expected, .725 versus .680.
The pitching let me down.
The Team ERA was 3.86 versus my 3.56.
Both starters and relievers were a bit off. The Yanks got a ton of unexpected strong
performances, from Pettitte, Kuroda, Cody Eppley, Clay Rapada and David Phelps,
but Super Nova and Freddie Garcia were terrible, and Joba Chamberlain and Cory
Wade were below expectations as well. The
net was a miss.
2013 YANKEES
Wins: 90 OPS:
.757 ERA: 3.86
So how does a Yankee team that most everyone has written
off achieve 90 wins, only 5 less than last year? Easy: with above average hitting and very
good pitching. And, given the flurry of
Cashman activity over the past three weeks, solid depth. Even with the injuries and age-adjusted
expectations, these Yanks are indeed only 5 games worse than last year.
Let’s take the straight substitutions of Yankees who are
now gone for good.
Catcher: doesn’t anyone
remember that Russell Martin had an atrocious hitting year last year? Sure he had 21 homers, but his OPS was only
.713. StewVelli (a la the Watergate era
“WoodStein”) will do only a few points worse that than…it’s hardly a tragedy. In fact, if Cervelli hits at a .700 OPS, it’s
basically a wash.
Left field: Brett Gardner
for Ibanez is actually a plus. Gardner ’s OPS in 2011 was
.762, a point better than Ibanez’s .761.
And Gardner
is the best outfielder in baseball and of course has speed, neither of which
are captured in OPS. Ibanez hit four
home runs I will never, ever forget….but Gardner
is an upgrade.
Right field: Ichiro for Swisher
is a downgrade…I’ve never been a huge Ichiro fan – a singles hitter who doesn’t
walk. His career OPS of .784 is only 13%
better than the league average for his career.
But he’s still a better outfielder than Swish, runs better, and he will certainly
hit better in the playoffs (Swish in playoffs lifetime: .589 OPS for 46 games). But still a major downgrade, worth -3.2 wins.
And as for replacing the injured Yanks…
First base: Lyle Overbay
is a perfect smart pickup to replace Tex
for several months. He’s a good fielder
and will love the short porch, and if he responds like Ibanez, he could have a
better April than Tex ,
a notoriously slow starter, might have had.
The two months cost the Yanks -0.6 wins.
Third Base: Kevin Youkilis
has had a torrid spring (6 homers, 13 extra base hits, 1.139 OPS). If he’s all the way back, he’ll be an upgrade
over Alex. And even if not…Alex had only
a .783 OPS last year. Yuke’s was .745. Again, hardly a disaster, another -0.6 wins.
DH: Travis Hafner replaces
Eric Chavez as the primary DH, and while Chavez had a very strong year (.845), Hafner is an .775 OPS guy, with upside, who will
do very well with the porch. Another -0.8
wins.
Centerfield: Vernon Wells is no
Grandyman…but this is likely only for a month.
Shortstop: Same with Nunez
for Jeter….it may be for only a few weeks.
The bigger question is what kind of year Jeter will have….I’m basically
expecting the 2011 Jeter, and won’t even dream about him duplicating 2012. But another -0.8.
So the hitters net to about that 5-6 range in losses
versus last year. That’s all.
As for the pitching:
The Yankees have six reasonably
good (or better) starters and Michael Pineda may actually return in June. As long as CC is CC, this is the strongest
starting staff the Yanks have had in years.
No Freddie, no Colon, no desperation here. And depth…few teams have a staff this deep.
The old guys – Pettitte, Kuroda
and Mariano – have all looked great in spring training, allowing 9 runs in 40
innings collectively. The bullpen is,
quite simply, among the best in baseball – if Mo is Mo.
Overall, it adds up to the same 3.86
ERA they achieved last year.
So I see the Yankees as follows. They are incredibly dependent on a bunch of
aging stars, and the wear-and-tear shows.
Jeter, ARod , Mo ,
Tex ,
Granderson, Gardner, CC and Pineda are all coming off surgery or serious
injuries – wow. Jeter, ARod, Ichiro , Mo
But while they are aging, they are still either performing
as well as ever (Pettitte , Mo
Oh, one more thing:
it would really help if Robinson Cano was the AL MVP! He was 4th last year and will
certainly challenge. The spotlight is
really on him now, and the burden, and if he delivers the whole line-up will
benefit.
And as for 1965?
Those Yanks fell from 99 wins in 1964 to 77, and you can lay most of
those 22 fewer wins on three guys:
Mantle, Maris and Howard. (That
and a switch from being 27-24 in one run games to 24-29.) Consider these stats:
1964
|
1964
|
1965
|
1965
|
|
OPS
|
P.A
|
OPS
|
P.A
|
|
Mantle/Maris/Howard
|
0.887
|
1,758
|
0.741
|
1,039
|
All Other
|
0.635
|
4,601
|
0.646
|
5,042
|
You can see the other players hit slightly better in 1965
than 1964. I can also tell you the
pitching was virtually the same (1964 ERA: 3.15, 1965: 3.28). If Mantle, Maris and Howard had the same OPS
and plate appearances in 1965, that would have been worth 13 more wins, getting
them to 90. The modest decline in
pitching and the one-run game differential explain the rest.
So that’s why I don’t see “1965” in the 2013 Yankee prognosis. The current Yanks are not nearly as dependent
on any three guys as those 1965 Yanks, and their one big guy, Robby Cano, is in
his prime. I can’t seem him falling off dramatically,
and the Yanks have only two other .800+ OPS guys, Tex and Granderson. They have a lineup full of guys who will hit
in the .750 OPS range, and the idea of all them suddenly plunging does not have
a high probability. (Though it did
happen to the Red Sox last year.)
Here is the data:
I’ve reflected age-appropriate declines for Jeter, ARod, Kuroda, Pettitte , Mo
.
| |||||||||
Pos
|
HITTERS
|
2012 Act. OPS
|
2013 Proj. OPS
|
2013 Plan Plate App
|
PITCHERS
|
2012 Act. ERA
|
2013 Proj. ERA
|
2013 Plan IP
|
|
C
|
Cervelli
|
0.719*
|
0.700
|
400
|
Sabathia
|
3.38
|
3.40
|
200
|
|
1B
|
Texeira
|
0.807
|
0.800
|
400
|
Hughes
|
4.23
|
4.25
|
180
|
|
2B
|
Cano
|
0.929
|
0.930
|
700
|
Pineda
|
3.74*
|
4.00
|
100
|
|
3B
|
Rodriguez
|
0.783
|
0.780
|
250
|
Nova
|
5.02
|
4.75
|
120
|
|
3B
|
Youkilis
|
0.745
|
0.750
|
550
|
Kuroda
|
3.32
|
3.50
|
190
|
|
SS
|
Jeter
|
0.791
|
0.750
|
600
|
Pettitte
|
2.87
|
3.50
|
150
|
|
OF
|
Granderson
|
0.811
|
0.810
|
500
|
Rivera
|
2.16
|
2.30
|
60
|
|
OF
|
0.713*
|
0.760
|
625
|
Robertson
|
2.67
|
2.60
|
60
|
||
OF
|
Suzuki
|
0.696
|
0.680
|
625
|
3.74
|
3.75
|
50
|
||
DH
|
Hafner
|
0.784
|
0.775
|
400
|
Eppley
|
3.33
|
3.50
|
50
|
|
C
|
Stewart
|
0.611
|
0.600
|
200
|
Phelps
|
3.34
|
3.70
|
80
|
|
C
|
Romine
|
0.600
|
50
|
Kelley
|
3.25
|
3.70
|
50
|
||
1B
|
Overbay
|
0.728
|
0.725
|
200
|
Chamberlain
|
4.35
|
3.50
|
50
|
|
IF
|
Nix
|
0.690
|
0.690
|
100
|
Rapada
|
2.82
|
3.00
|
30
|
|
IF
|
Nunez
|
0.723
|
0.725
|
225
|
Other
|
7.00
|
80
|
||
OF
|
Wells
|
0.682
|
0.680
|
100
|
TOTAL
|
3.84
|
1450
|
||
OF
|
Francisco
|
0.691
|
0.680
|
100
|
|||||
OF
|
Boesch
|
0.659
|
0.700
|
100
|
|||||
Other
|
0.700
|
100
|
|||||||
P
|
Pitchers
|
0.200
|
25
|
||||||
TOTAL
|
0.757
|
6250
|
|||||||
* in 2011;
did not play enough in 2012
|
|||||||||
I’ll be back soon with the write-up of my predictions for
all 30 teams….suffice to say, the AL East will be an utter dogfight!
