My Baseball Hall of Fame Picks and Predictions (January 6, 2013)

This is the year we have been waiting for:  the votes that define the full judgment on the Steroids Era.  Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero have already felt the sting of the abrupt dismissal of their juiced-up HOF stats (at least for now).  And now the poster children of the era, two players who would otherwise lay a viable claim to the titles “Best Player Ever” and “Best Pitcher Ever,” Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, face the judgment, along with Sammy Sosa.

Some will argue that Bonds and Clemens were HOF-worthy well before the grossly exaggerated versions of themselves put up eye-popping stats at an age when most mere athletic mortals are following a natural downward spiral towards retirement.  And thus their ticket to Cooperstown was already stamped before the needle and the damage was done.  Sure, and Pete Rose may never have gambled as a player.  So what?  In my book, they are toast.

So, I give you, to start, my ballot, and then my prediction.  The two lists are very different because in my view, voters do not typically do a very good job.  Results will be announced on January 9^th

My ballot: the nine players who are worthy of entry into the HOF:

Mike Piazza

Jeff Bagwell

Fred McGriff

Mike Piazza

Alan Trammell

Edgar Martinez

Lee Smith

Curt Schilling

Tim Raines

Let’s be clear:  I do not believe anyone who was proven to have taken steroids (via the Mitchell report or a known failed test) or HGH should ever get in the HOF.  We can’t take away their stats, or their trophies, or suspend them.  In fact, about all we can do is deny them entry to the HOF.  So let’s do that.

Also, I don’t believe in this “doesn’t deserve the first ballot” crap.  You are either a Hall of Famer or not.  What is the point of “building momentum” over the years?  It makes no sense.

And who will actually get in?  Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio and Jack Morris.

Here’s my stab at how the voting will go:

	Proj.	Proj
	%	Votes
	2013	2013
Mike Piazza*	86.0%	520
Craig Biggio*	79.3%	480
Jack Morris	76.0%	460
Jeff Bagwell	57.9%	350
Lee Smith	49.6%	300
Tim Raines	49.6%	300
Roger Clemens*	41.3%	250
Barry Bonds*	41.3%	250
Edgar Martinez	35.5%	215
Alan Trammell	34.7%	210
Curt Schilling	28.1%	170
Fred McGriff	19.0%	115
Larry Walker	18.2%	110
Don Mattingly	15.7%	95
Dale Murphy	15.7%	95
Mark McGwire	14.9%	90
Sammy Sosa*	11.6%	70
Rafael Palmiero	9.9%	60
Bernie Williams	6.6%	40
David Wells*	6.6%	40
Julio Franco*	3.0%	18
Kenny Lofton*	2.0%	12
Shawn Green*	0.5%	3
Steve Finley*	0.3%	2
Sandy Alomar*	0.3%	2
Ryan Klesko*	0.2%	1
Jeff Conine*	0.0%	0
Royce Clayton*	0.0%	0
Reggie Sanders*	0.0%	0
Aaron Sele*	0.0%	0
Rondell White*	0.0%	0
Jeff Cirillo*	0.0%	0
Todd Walker*	0.0%	0
Woody Williams*	0.0%	0

 * First time on the ballot

 Note that I think Jack Morris will get elected, even though I don’t think he is worthy.  More on that later.

One other prediction:  Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will get the exact same number of votes.

THE BALLOT:  WHO IS “HALL WORTHY”?

Let’s start with the starting pitchers.  I’m going to reference the chart below.  I’ve compared the six pitchers on the ballot (Clemens, Schilling, Wells, Morris, Sele and Woody Williams)  with three groupings:  all Hall of Fame starting pitchers (the line labeled HOF), guys  who are on the HOF that I consider “borderline” (by virtue of having a Tom Gardner Score of around 50 based on my regression equation) and other guys were are NOT in the HOF who were also borderline (by the same method; I used Luis Tiant, Ron Guidry, Doc Gooden, David Cone and Jimmy Key for this group).

You can clearly see that Roger Clemens is far superior to every grouping.  He’s a certain HOF’er absent the steroids, but so be it.  He’s out.

  

	W	L	PCT.	ERA+	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Clemens**	354	184	0.658	143	134	122/77	No
HOF	266	184	0.596	122	65	64
My borderline HOF (.48-.52)	219	154	0.599	123	57	50
Schilling	216	146	0.597	128	76	51	Yes
Wells	239	157	0.604	108	49	49	No
Morris	254	168	0.602	105	39	45	No
Borderline not in HOF*	195	124	0.612	117	51	42
Sele	148	112	0.569	100	18	5	No
Williams, Woody	132	116	0.532	103	28	-8	No
*   Tiant, Guidry, Gooden, Cone, Key **  Steroids tainted

The more interesting cases are Curt Schilling, David Wells and Jack Morris, who had very similar careers, and were also known for postseason excellence.  Each had 200+ wins (but not the high 200’s) and each won 60% of their decisions.  Each are classic borderline types, compiling stats that are similar to both the guys that squeaked in and those who just missed.  So why is Schilling deserving, but not Wells and Morris? 

1)  Schilling, while having fewer wins, had an ERA+ of 128, which means his ERA was 28% better than the average for the league of his career.  Wells’ and Morris’ ERA’s were only 8% and 5% better, which is very low by HOF standards (note the borderline guys were 123 and 117.) 

2)  Schilling had a “WAR” (Wins Above Replacement Value) of 76 while the other two have WAR’s below 50.  This means that Schilling, over his career, compiled 76 more wins than a “replacement” player – that is, a typical 5^th or 6^th starter) – would have compiled.

3)  Schilling’s postseason stats are far better than the other two:  he was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA.  Wells was 10-5 with a 3.17 and Morris was 7-4 with a 3.80.

So, much as it pains me, since I’m not a big Schilling fan and, god knows, I am a Yankee fan, but Curt deserves the plaque.

I’m not even going to dignify Aaron Sele and Woody Williams with any commentary. 

CATCHERS

There are two catchers on the ballot, Piazza and Sandy Alomar.  Mike Piazza has some steroid whispers but no proof.  He is easily the greatest hitting catcher of all-time.  He dominates the other groups even more than Clemens.  Sandy Alomar is not even close to borderline, though obviously he was the better defensive catcher.  But let’s not waste too much time here:  Piazza is a must.

Just to clarify this chart, OPS+ is the hitting equivalent of ERA+:  OPS is “on base percentage plus slugging percentage,” and the “+” means the statistic is indexing the player’s OPS to the league average for his era.  Thus Piazza, essentially, hit a whopping 42% better than the league average.

Catchers	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Piazza	142	2,127	0.308	427	1,335	59	93	Yes
HOF	119	1,773	0.285	94	1,013	49	55
TG borderline HOF (.41-.62)	127	1,558	0.301	113	890	45	51
Borderline not in HOF*	113	1,851	0.273	23	980	43	51
Alomar	86	1,236	0.273	112	588	12	10	No
*Simmons, Parrish, Munson, Freehan

FIRST BASEMEN

Like Piazza, Jeff Bagwell hears some whispers about steroids…such is the fate of any muscle-bound star of the era, even those never mentioned in the Mitchell Report or with any failed drug tests.  With an OPS+ of 149 and a WAR of 80, not to mention 449 homers and over 1500 RBI’s, he’s a certain HOF’er.

Rafael Palmiero and Mark McGwire are both HOF material, but both are tainted and thus doomed to the outside, though they will continue to get their votes.

Fred McGriff is a fascinating case and I tip the scales in his favor.  He’s borderline in many ways, but with a 50+ score on both WAR and the TG score, his power stats (493 homers and 1,550 RBIs) get him a plaque in my view.  Very tough call.

Don Mattingly was the best player in the game for a 6-year period, but his back woes left him short.  It is amazing to me how many great Yankees fall just short of making the grade….this ballot alone includes Mattingly, Wells and Bernie Williams, joining a long list of “borderline” Yankees who never made it that includes Munson, Nettles, Guidry, Randolph, Cone, Maris, Tino Martinez and others.

Alas, Ryan Klesko does not really belong on the ballot.

First Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Bagwell	149	2,314	0.297	449	1,529	80	63	Yes
HOF	142	2,399	0.308	284	1,421	66	59
Palmiero**	132	3,020	0.288	569	1,835	66	73/10	No
McGriff	134	2,490	0.284	493	1,550	51	0.56	Yes
McGwire**	163	1,626	0.263	583	1,414	63	51/32	No
TG borderline HOF (.46-.53)	138	2,198	0.297	363	1,391	54	49
Borderline not in HOF*	131	2,248	0.297	250	1,180	53	44
Mattingly	128	2,153	0.307	222	1,099	40	38	No
Klesko	128	1,564	0.279	278	987	27	17	No

*   D. Allen, W. Clark, Grace, Garvey, Olerud, Hernandez

** Steriods tainted

SECOND BASEMEN

Craig Biggio is a classic HOF candidate and should be elected.  Conventional thinkers will point to his 3,000 hits as the golden ticket, but his 66 WAR and .73 TG Score are certainly HOF caliber.  He has excellent power stats for a second baseman, but his OPS+ is borderline at 111.

Second Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Biggio	111	3,060	0.281	291	1,175	66	72	Yes
HOF	120	2,405	0.299	152	1,084	69	54
TG borderline HOF (.44-.62)	113	2,584	0.301	161	1,070	64	54
Borderline not in HOF*	116	2,137	0.273	174	878	46	40
Walker, Todd	98	1,316	0.289	107	545	8	-8	No

* Whitaker, Grich, Randolph

SHORTSTOPS

I have long thought of Alan Trammell as a Hall of Fame shortstop, but he’s suffered for being a peer of Cal Ripken, Jr. and a forerunner of the Jeter/A. Rod/Nomar/Tejada era of tremendous hitting shortstops.  But his stats clearly match those of HOF shortstops on all dimensions, and he should be inducted.  His long-time double play partner, Lou Whitaker, is no longer on the ballot, a true injustice as his stats largely mirror Trammell’s and are  even more impressive compared to second basemen.

Royce Clayton is far from HOF material.

Shortstops	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Trammell	110	2,365	0.285	185	1,003	67	58	Yes
HOF	109	2,335	0.286	117	1,056	63	54
TG borderline HOF (.43-.53)	105	2,248	0.284	59	939	54	49
Borderline not in HOF*	103	2,143	0.283	129	887	39	42
Clayton	77	1,904	0.258	110	723	16	10	No

* Bartell, Stephens, Fernandez, Dark, Concepcion

THIRD BASEMEN

Jeff Cirillo is the only third base candidate this year, and he is far from qualified for the HOF.

Third Basemen	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
HOF	124	2,352	0.296	228	1,203	67	41
TG borderline HOF (.28-.37)	121	2,313	0.284	235	1,225	66	37
Borderline not in HOF*	115	2,223	0.273	290	1,155	55	28
Cirillo	102	1,598	0.296	112	727	33	-6	No

* B. Bell, D. Evans, Madlock, Nettles, Boyer

OUTFIELDERS

A large group of outfielders/DH’s are on the ballot and only one is worthy is my view, and that is Edgar Martinez.

Let’s dispense with Barry Bonds first.  What can I say, he has unbelievable, dare I say Ruthian stats.  But no go.

Edgar Martinez is another fascinating call, a guy who spent roughly ___% of his career as a DH, one of the few primarily DH candidates we have had (Paul Molitor was another).  Edgar gets my vote on the strength of that singular hitting talent, with an exceptional OPS of 147, and WAR and TG Scores well above 50.

Tim Raines was another tough call.  With a WAR of 65 he certainly merits consideration, even though his OPS+ is only 123.  Raines of course had 808 steals, and even more impressive was his 85% stolen base success rate, one of the best ever, which clearly was a huge plus not captured in the OPS (you need, I believe, a 70% rate for the increased scoring opportunities created by a successful steal to offset the removal of same and the lost out of an out stealing).  So the Rock gets in.

Larry Walker looks like a strong candidate but the “Coors Field” Factor is quite strong for him.  His Coors OPS was an otherwordly 1.068, but only .865 on the road, which in a given year may not even land him on an All-Star team.

Sammy Sosa is interesting because I’m not sure he is a HOF’er even if he was not tainted.  His OPS+ of 128 is borderline, but he would probably get the nod for his power stats and a decent WAR.  But no.

Bernie Williams is another one that is a tough call.  His regular season stats are borderline at best, with below 50 WAR and TG Score.  But he is the all-time leader in postseason RBIs and second in hits, runs, home runs, doubles and total bases.  Having said that, his postseason stats are quite similar to those of his regular seasons…and thus the whole picture does not add up to Hall-worthiness.

Steve Finley and Kenny Lofton are fine players with combinations of speed and power reminiscent of Tim Raines, but both are Rock-lite, not Rock-like.

Dale Murphy is getting a fair amount of discussion as this is his last year of eligibility, but the two-time MVP has stats that are across the board below the borderline outfielders (guys like Rusty Staub, Al Oliver, Dave Parker, Dwight Evans and Reggie Smith, none of whom made the HOF).

And the other outfielders, Shawn Green, Jeff Conine, Reggie Sanders and Rondell White, are all pretty good players, each with an All-Star pick or two, but each falls well short of Cooperstown consideration.

Outfielders/DH	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
Bonds**	182	2,935	0.298	762	1,996	158	1.16/.33	No
HOF	137	2,566	0.314	240	1,288	70	0.61
Martinez, Edgar	147	2,247	0.312	309	1,261	64	0.59	Yes
Raines	123	2,605	0.294	170	980	65	0.50	Yes
TG borderline HOF (.48-.52)	130	2,448	0.309	198	1,165	51	0.50
Borderline not in HOF*	126	2,527	0.286	310	1,352	49	0.50
Walker, Larry	140	2,160	0.313	383	1,311	67	0.49	No
Sosa**	128	2,408	0.273	609	1,667	55	.47/-.36	No
Williams, Bernie	125	2,336	0.297	287	1,257	47	0.42	No
Finley	104	2,548	0.271	304	1,167	40	0.30	No
Lofton	107	2,428	0.299	130	781	65	0.28	No
Murphy	119	2,111	0.265	398	1,266	44	0.28	No
Green, Shawn	120	2,003	0.283	328	1,070	31	0.25	No
Conine	107	1,982	0.285	214	1,071	15	0.12	No
Sanders	115	1,666	0.267	305	983	37	0.08	No
White, Rondell	108	1,519	0.284	198	768	26	(0.04)	No

 *    Staub, Oliver, Parker, Evans, R. Smith

**  Steroids tainted

HYBRID

Julio Franco is an interesting candidate, with nearly 2600 hits.  He split his time roughly in thirds between second, short and OF/DH and I have therefore concocted a hybrid set of comparables.  He’s basically a very strong hitting middle infielder but a relatively modest DH-type.  He’s not a Hall of Famer – look at that WAR – but he lines up closer to the border than I would have thought.

Hybrid (1/3 SS/ 1/3 2B, 1/3 OF/DH)	OPS+	Hits	Avg.	HR	RBI	WAR	TG Score	TG Vote
HOF	122	2435	0.300	170	1142	67	56
TG borderline HOF	116	2427	0.298	139	1058	56	51
Borderline not in HOF*	115	2269	0.281	204	1039	45	44
Franco	111	2,586	0.298	173	1,194	40	54	No

RELIEF PITCHERS

Relief pitchers have not been around long enough for established norms to have been established, much less regression equations built (although I’m working on one!).  But I simply find it hard to argue against Lee Smith, who is third on the all-time list of saves with 478, trailing only Mariano and Trevor Hoffman.  He is well ahead of #4, John Franco (424), and light years ahead of Hall of Famers Ekersley (390), Fingers (341), Gossage (310) and Sutter (300).  I can’t figure out why he has not done better in the voting to date.

Comments welcome!  And check back on January 9^th to see how I did!