Here is the October Surprise: Chris Christie! (November 1, 2012)

It’s been a good 24 hours for Barack Obama.

And I don’t mean my almost-but-not–quite-official prediction of an Obama victory!

But since I made that prediction yesterday, a number of important events broke the President’s way.

First and foremost, Obama appears to have taken the challenge of an enormous natural disaster and more than risen to the occasion.  None other than Chris Christie – Romney’s top surrogate and the most popular Republican on the planet – led the bandwagon.  Christie exhausted superlatives in extolling Obama’s leadership in the Hurricane Sandy crisis. 

Recently Governor Christie said that Obama was “clutching for the light switch of leadership.”  Apparently, Christie has concluded that Obama has found it, saying among other hosannas, that it was “his honor” to introduce Obama, his seatmate on a tour of the ravaged Jersey Shore.  He also said he and Obama have a "great working relationship" and that Obama had been “outstanding" and overall “deserves great credit” for his Sandy performance.  I knew Christie was a fan of The Boss, but I always thought that meant Springsteen.

Cynics quickly concluded that Christie was calculating that he would rather Romney lose so he could run in 2016 than wait for Mitt to relinquish the Republican nomination in, yikes, 2020.  As a matter of fact, that’s what non-cynics concluded as well.

But the good news for Obama did not stop there, to wit:

·         Mr. Political Independent and Paragon of Business Competency, New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, officially endorsed Obama.  Doesn’t it cut the wind out of Romney’s sails when the leading businesspeople of our times – Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and Mike Bloomberg – are all lining up behind Obama?  (I would bet that Jeff Bezos, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg are on that line as well.)  Wait, I can think of two leading businessmen who are for Romney – Donald “The Birther” Trump and Jack “The Weasel” Welch!

·         The monthly ADP jobs report indicated growth of private sector jobs of 158,000, well ahead of estimates.  The ADP Report does not always correlate with the government report due tomorrow, but the strength of the report tends to diminish the odds of a bad one.

·         Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 363, 000, also beating expectations, a level associated with increasing employment.

·         Consumer Confidence, as measured by Conference Board (and one of the measures in my Obameter) climbed to 72.2, the highest level since February, 2008.  This is not the type of data that is headline-making, but it is the best indicator I’ve come across on how Americans feel about their economic prospects.  When Obama came to office, the number was 25.3.  So do you think Americans feel they are better off than four years ago?

·         The Dow rose 123 points, largely on the ADP and Consumer Confidence reports.  That datapoint does tend to get headlines, and is also in the Obameter.

·         Obama’s approval rating, as measured by Gallup, was 51%.  Three other polls, CBS, NBC and Fox, had it at 50%.  Only right-winger Rasmussen had it below 50% -- at 49%.  Fifty percent is generally the level associated with re-election for an incumbent.

So, as for the race itself, let me repeat my assertion from yesterday (updated for six new polls), which I stated before all this positive information rolled in….

Daily Dash 11/1	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Romney	0.5
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	8.0
Charisma Factor	Romney	-1.8
Senate	Dems	53-47
House	Repubs	240-195

Obama has 237 solid state electoral votes.  But the key is this:  I believe that Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada are firming up for him.  Since October 4, the night of the first disastrous debate, there have been 53 polls in these three states.  (Fifty-three!)  And Obama has been ahead in 42 of them, with 7 ties.  Romney has been ahead in only 4 of these 53 polls!  And those three states represent 34 electoral votes….1 more than Obama needs to go over the top, because 237 + 34 = 271.

Barring a disastrous jobs report, I think Barack Obama is going to win.

And I really don’t envision a “disastrous” jobs report happening….and I’ll be back tomorrow morning with that “Breaking News.”

DAILY DASH		10/26	10/27	10/28	10/29	10/30	10/31	11/1
National Polls	Obama	47.3	47.3	47.7	47.7	47.49	47.4	47.6
	Romney	47.5	47.4	47.2	47.5	47.48	47.5	47.2
	Difference	-0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.3	0.01	-0.1	0.5
Obameter		3.6	3.6	3.6	2.6	4.7	4.6	8.0
Charisma Factor		-3.7	-3.7	-3.7	-3.8	-3.0	-3.0	-1.8
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2.4	2.6	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1
Nevada	6	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.7	2.0
Wisconsin	10	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	4.0
Iowa	6	2.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.5	2.5
Colorado	9	0.8	0.8	2.0	2.0	1.4	1.4	1.0
Virginia	13	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.7	1.0
New Hampshire	4	2.0	2.0	0.3	0.3	2.5	2.5	2.3
Florida	29	-1.5	-1.5	-1.2	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6	-0.8
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	66	66	66	66	66	66	66
	Obama	303	303	303	303	303	303	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
	Romney	235	235	235	235	235	235	235
Senate	Democrat	52	52	52	52	53	53	53
Projection	Republican	48	48	48	48	47	47	47
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
Ohio	Brown-Martel	5	5	3	4	6	6	6
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	4	4	4	6	6	6	6
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	5	5	5	4	6	6	6
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	2	2	2	2	2	2	1
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	1	2	2	2	1	1	3
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	6	6	6	4	4	4	4
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	-4	-4
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-3	-3	-3	-3	-4	-4	-5
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	-5	0	0	0	4	4	4
House	Democrat	200	200	200	200	200	195	195
Projection	Republican	235	235	235	235	235	240	240