Daily Dash....Obama's Swing State Leads Widen (November 2, 2012)

There were many new swing state polls reported today and Obama did quite well.  You can see below that his lead expanded a bit in Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin, the three states that I’ve said have been “firming up” for him, and the only three he needs to get to the magic 270.  His lead also grew in New Hampshire, held in Colorado and Virginia, and Romney’s Florida lead has shrunk to a dead heat.  Things seem to be breaking Obama’s way at the right time, and with the jobs report behind him, mixed bag that it was, it is hard to see anything Romney can do to re-shift the momentum back to him.

DAILY DASH		10/27	10/28	10/29	10/30	10/31	11/1	11/2
Swing States	ElectoralVotes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2.6	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.4
Nevada	6	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.7	2.0	3.3
Wisconsin	10	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5	4.0	4.6
Iowa	6	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.5	2.5	2.5
Colorado	9	0.8	2.0	2.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0
Virginia	13	1.0	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.1
New Hampshire	4	2.0	0.3	0.3	2.5	2.5	2.3	3.3
Florida	29	-1.5	-1.2	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6	-0.8	-0.1

Obama now leads the national polls by 0.6 points, and the other measures are about as they were, heading into the final weekend.  By this count, he will crack through the 300 mark in electoral votes, and, if his Modest Mo continues, he may even pick up Florida.  Oddest decision I’ve heard?  Romney is campaigning in Pennsylvania, which is about a +5 for Obama, a wider margin than any of these swing states.

Daily Dash 11/2	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Obama	0.6
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	5.7
Charisma Factor	Romney	-1.8
Senate	Dems	53-47
House	Repubs	240-195