Daily Dash...No Late Shift To Romney (November 4, 2012)

Not much change from yesterday despite a number of new polls.  Everything still lines up for Obama.  He edged up in the national polls from a 0.5 to 0.8 point lead.  This is the average of 13 polls within the last several days.  Obama leads in 7 of them, is tied in 5 (including the Republican leaning Rasmussen) and is losing only one, the Gallup poll, which suspended it’s daily tracking 6 days ago and therefore is the most dated poll of the 13.

Even the Charisma Factor moved toward Obama, with two new polls bringing the margin to within a point, though still favoring Romney.  The Obameter, at +5.4, would suggest about a 2-point win for Obama.

Daily Dash 11/4	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Obama	0.8
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	5.4
Charisma Factor	Romney	-0.4
Senate	Dems	53-47
House	Repubs	240-195

The states varied only minutely from yesterday.  Obama still leads in 7 of the 8 swing states, and barely trails Romney in Florida. 

A new Senate poll in Montana, the first in weeks, showed, as I suspected, Republican Rehberg 4 points ahead of incumbent Democrat Tester.  So that swings Montana back into the Republican column and we’re at 53-47 again for the Senate.

Back tomorrow with my final predictions!

DAILY DASH		10/29	10/30	10/31	11/1	11/2	11/3	11/4
National Polls	Obama	47.7	47.49	47.4	47.6	47.7	47.6	48.2
	Romney	47.5	47.48	47.5	47.2	47.0	47.1	47.4
	Difference	0.3	0.01	-0.1	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.8
Obameter		2.6	4.7	4.6	8.0	5.7	5.7	5.4
Charisma Factor		-3.8	-3.0	-3.0	-1.8	-1.8	-1.8	-0.4
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.4	2.9	3.0
Nevada	6	2.4	2.7	2.7	2.0	3.3	3.3	3.3
Wisconsin	10	3.0	3.0	2.5	4.0	4.6	4.6	4.2
Iowa	6	3.0	3.0	4.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	3.5
Colorado	9	2.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Virginia	13	1.3	0.7	0.7	1.0	1.1	2.4	2.3
New Hampshire	4	0.3	2.5	2.5	2.3	3.3	2.8	2.3
Florida	29	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6	-0.8	-0.1	-0.5	-0.6
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	66	66	66	66	66	66	66
	Obama	303	303	303	303	303	303	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	29	29	29	29	29	29	29
	Romney	235	235	235	235	235	235	235
Senate	Democrat	52	53	53	53	53	54	53
Projection	Republican	48	47	47	47	47	46	47
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Ohio	Brown-Martel	4	6	6	6	6	5	6
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	6	6	6	6	6	8	8
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	4	6	6	6	8	5	6
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	2	2	2	1	3	1	2
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	2	1	1	3	3	2	2
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-5	-4	-4	-4	-4	-4	-4
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-3	-4	-4	-5	-5	-5	-5
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	0	4	4	4	7	7	7
House	Democrat	200	200	195	195	195	195	195
Projection	Republican	235	235	240	240	240	240	240