Obama Will Win...He Said Tentatively and Unofficially (October 31, 2012)

Daily Dash 10/31	Ahead	Margin
National Polls	Romney	-0.1
Swing States	Obama	7 of 8
Electoral College	Obama	303-235
Obameter	Obama	4.6
Charisma Factor	Romney	3.0
Senate	Dems	53-47
House	Repubs	240-195

The Presidential race is highly fluid, right?  All the swing states are within the margin of error, right?  The national polls are  deadlocked, with Romney ahead by precisely 1/10^th of one percentage point.  Hurricane Sandy has thrown a wild card into the picture.  And the job report on Friday could show a substantial variance one way or the other, thereby providing (to combine a couple of campaign clichés) a game-changing November Surprise.

So, of course it’s too close to call.  Right? 

Maybe.  Maybe not.

No, I’m not making my final prediction now – that will come Monday.  But I’m starting to see the contours of the outcome.

Obama has 237 solid state electoral votes.  But the key is this:  I believe that Ohio, Wisconsin and Nevada are firming up for him.  Since October 4, the night of the first disastrous debate, there have been 47 polls in these three states.  (Forty-seven!)  And Obama has been ahead in 37 of them, with 6 ties.  Romney has been ahead in only 4 out of the 47 polls!  And those three states represent 34 electoral votes….1 more than Obama needs to go over the top, because 237 + 34 = 271.

Barring a disastrous jobs report, I think Barack Obama is going to win.

Keep in mind, Obama is also ahead in Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, but using the same methodology, they are tighter.  There have been 41 polls in those states, and Romney has been ahead in 19 of them, to 16 for Obama with 6 ties.  But, as of now, Obama is ahead in each of them

The only swing state in Romney’s column is Florida. But his lead there is dwindling:  I have it at 48.3% to 47.8% now, down from a 1.8 point margin a week ago.  And Romney is worried about Florida…how do I know?  Because today – the first full day of resumed campaigning for him post-Sandy – he is spending the entire day in Florida.  He is spending the entire day in the one swing state he is leading!  That’s not good.

Also, you may have noticed I’m giving the Democrats one more seat in the Senate, for a 53-47 projected majority (same as the current Senate).  This is due to the Indiana Senate race, which became the second “sure Republican win” race to get turned on its head by an idiotic comment about rape by the Republican candidate.  First, it was Missouri challenger Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comment in July (snatching apparent defeat from the jaws of almost certain victory), and now Richard Mourdock’s comment that pregnancy from rape was “God’s intent.”  Mourdock is the extremist who defeated long-time Senator Richard Lugar – an incumbent so strong in 2006 that the Democrat’s chose not to oppose him – in the primary.  Mourdock was up five before the comment, but he’s losing now.

I’ve also updated the House, and it looks like 240-195, almost identical to the current House composition, which is 242-193.  Amazing, as I’ve noted before….la plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, across our government.  It looks like:  same President, same Senate, same House, same Majority and Minority Leaders, same Speaker, same 9 Supreme Court justices.

DAILY DASH		10/25	10/26	10/27	10/28	10/29	10/30	10/31
National Polls	Obama	47.3	47.3	47.3	47.7	47.7	47.5	47.4
	Romney	47.6	47.5	47.4	47.2	47.5	47.5	47.5
	Difference	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	0.5	0.3	0.0	-0.1
Obameter		5.4	3.6	3.6	3.6	2.6	4.7	4.6
Charisma Factor		-2.3	-3.7	-3.7	-3.7	-3.8	-3.0	-3.0
Swing States	Electoral Votes	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-	Ob +/-
Ohio	18	2.0	2.4	2.6	2.3	2.1	2.1	2.1
Nevada	6	2.7	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4
Wisconsin	10	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	2.5
Iowa	6	-0.5	2.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	4.5
Colorado	9	-4.0	0.8	0.8	2.0	2.0	1.4	1.4
Virginia	13	-2.0	0.6	1.0	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.7
New Hampshire	4	1.0	2.0	2.0	0.3	0.3	2.5	2.5
Florida	29	-1.0	-1.5	-1.5	-1.2	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6
Electoral College	Solid Obama	237	237	237	237	237	237	237
Projection	Swing Obama	38	66	66	66	66	66	66
	Obama	275	303	303	303	303	303	303
	Solid Romney	206	206	206	206	206	206	206
	Swing Romney	57	29	29	29	29	29	29
	Romney	263	235	235	235	235	235	235
Senate	Democrat	52	52	52	52	52	53	53
Projection	Republican	48	48	48	48	48	47	47
Key Senate Races	Dem-Rep	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-	D +/-
Missouri	McCaskill-Akin	6	4	4	4	4	4	4
Ohio	Brown-Martel	6	5	5	3	4	6	6
Connecticut	Murphy-McMahon	4	4	4	4	6	6	6
Pennsylvania	Casey-Smith	8	5	5	5	4	6	6
Wisconsin	Baldwin-Thompson	1	2	2	2	2	2	2
Virginia	Kaine-Allen	1	1	2	2	2	1	1
Arizona	Carmona-Flake	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6	-6
Massachusetts	Warren-Brown	6	6	6	6	4	4	4
Montana	Tester-Rehberg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Dakota	Heitkamp-Berg	-5	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	-4
Nevada	Berkeley-Heller	-3	-3	-3	-3	-3	-1	-1
Indiana	Donnelley-Mourdock	-5	-5	0	0	0	4	4
House	Democrat	200	200	200	200	200	200	195
Projection	Republican	235	235	235	235	235	235	240