Jimmy Fallon did a great song parody of "Fire and Rain," called "Romney and Bain," complete with a first-rate James Taylor impersonation. Check it out!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0uX36AczW0&noredirect=1
Also, for you Springsteen fans (and I am a fanatic, as some of you well know), here are Jimmy Fallon and noted Springsteen fan and Republican New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dueting on a portion of "Thunder Road." Not a song parody, just a loving rendition, but not bad, particularly the harmony!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XWBYSIZepQ&feature=player_detailpage
I'm no Chris Christie fan, but the guy has been to 130 Springsteen concerts and you gotta like that (I've been to 20 and people think I'm nuts...)
You will love this site if you: (1) want accurate national election predictions, (2) are a political junkie, (3) don't have the time to track the campaigns, and/or (4) crave an informed overview of where things stand. BTRTN has everything you really need to know to stay informed – all in one place.
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Great Articles You've Sent Me (September 29, 2012)
I’ve received a whole bunch of great articles from a number of you, so today’s post is to pass them on.
Here are a couple on the upcoming debates…this one is from me...James Fallows on Romney’s debate history…
And one from Wick, for those who want to play a little Debate Bingo…
Joe submits this one on how Romney must spend time on fundraising, often in non-competitive states…
From Martin, on the real reason Romney is losing…
Another from Joe, suggesting the potential of a media-driven “Romney Comeback” emerging…
Happy weekend reading!
Friday, September 28, 2012
Election Week in Review...Calm Before the (Debate) Storm? (September 28, 2012)
Ah, a week without a huge event, the first in a long time. As I noted last week, for the last six weeks the campaigns have been dominated by a single weekly theme. In order: Ryan picked as the VP, Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” comments, the Republican Convention, the Democratic Convention, the Libya tragedy and ensuing Mideast violence and then the “47 percent” video last week. Nothing approached that order of magnitude this week. Perhaps a collective breath is being taken before the debates begin: one per week starting this coming Wednesday, October 3rd (at 9 PM EST).
The week was primarily driven by the fall-out from Romney’s “47 percent” video, with the Obama campaign extending the news life cycle as much as possible (and grumpy Republicans adding their critiques as well, of the video comments as well as the campaign management). Some Republican congressional candidates were distancing themselves from the comments. Polling seems to indicate that this particular gaffe has hurt Romney and will live on, but was not necessarily a “game-ender.” I’ll have more on that Monday.
This week had its share of unusual comments…not quite gaffes, but not so great, either. Obama said that “you can’t change Washington Washington
Romney, for his part, said to Scott Pelley on 60 Minutes that he did not believe his campaign needed a “turnaround” to win. The answer, odd for a CEO-type, seemed to indicate that all he needed to do to win was to keep up his current tactics. This seemed consistent with Einstein’s famous definition of insanity: “…doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” This might be an appropriate time to remind Romney that he has not led once in the entire campaign. But I guess the conservative right is reminding him quite pointedly every day….indeed, they were the inspiration for Pelley’s original question.
The Middle East seems to have calmed down, at least from headline news. There were some rumblings that the Obama Administration should be held accountable for Ambassador Stevens’ death in some way, by not protecting him adequately, but this has not coalesced into a major news item as yet.
Finally, some very encouraging numbers for Obama: Gallup Gallup
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
We All Live in the Same House (September 26, 2012)
Guest blogger Wendy reminds us that each House race affects all of us....case in point, our own redistricted New York 18th, where Tea Party Republican incumbent Nan Hayworth is running neck and neck with challenger Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney...
I know we live in a
sound bite, Facebook world where only the last five minutes seem relevant, but
remember Todd Akin? Most of us (but
amazingly enough, not all of us) can agree that this guy is a fool. A fool yes, but not harmless. While August’s
commentary focused on whether or not Akin would remain on the ballot for
Senator, I was thinking about the fact that he’s been representing Missouri for
twelve
years; and while his colleagues in the House are too savvy to utter the
words “legitimate rape,” many share his ideology (think: Paul Ryan).
There would be a
silver lining to the insane little Akin episode if it drove home the fact that
the Congressional races matter. A lot.
Over the past four
years, impasse after impasse has demonstrated that the House has quite the
impact on our lives. Our system of
checks and balances was well conceived, but right now we have more check than
balance. Those who would critique Obama should first point a finger at Republican
Congressmen so hell bent on ousting him that they put that objective ahead of
the well being of 314 million citizens.
Our
own neck of the woods (the New York 18th) was recently
redistricted. As it currently stands,
come November our Representative will switch from Nita Lowey, a twelve term Democrat,
to Nan Hayworth, a one-term Tea Partier currently representing the 19th. In less than two years in Congress,
Representative Hayworth has voted to prohibit use of federal funds for Planned
Parenthood, to repeal the Affordable Health Care Act, and for Ryan’s Path to
Prosperity Budget; she initially voted against increasing the debt limit,
ultimately voting yea for the Boehner proposal. The list goes on and on, but you have the
flavor. I will note that in a departure
from her conservative roots, Ms. Hayworth supports gay rights (sort of –
watching her flank, she won’t go as far as endorsing the Equal Marriage Act but
she was a member of the LBGT caucus). Then again, a la Dick Cheney, one of her
children is gay. Call me cynical, but I
find it hard to respect those who can only muster the backbone to do the right
thing when it hits close to home.
This
summer, Tom and I attended two receptions for Congresswoman
Hayworth’s Democratic opponent, Sean Patrick Maloney. Mr. Maloney is the diametric opposite of Nan
Hayworth, a strong supporter of women’s reproductive rights, of gay rights, of
the Affordable Health Care Act, and a foe of the Ryan budget proposal. You actually don’t need to know much more;
the contrast with Nan Hayworth is so stark that it’s hard to envision anyone
being on the fence between the two.
For
those of us who live in New York, there’s a temptation to skip going to the
polls (especially if the first Tuesday in November is rainy). After all, New York will go easily for Obama and Senator Gillebrand’s re-election is a
given, so why bother? It’s that attitude
that brought us Republican Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, a
politician who has wrecked havoc on affordable housing, social programs, and women’s
rights -- my point being, it all
matters. And here in the 18th
district, Hayworth versus Maloney matters a lot because this is one of those
hot Congressional seats that truly is contested.
House
issues blend the local and national, so while I get to vote yea or nay for Ms.
Hayworth, those of you who don’t live in my district will be affected by my
choice. I urge you to look closely at
YOUR choices. They will affect you, and
some also will affect me. Washington’s
tight gridlock over the past four years is proof positive that unless we
succeed in changing the blue/red mix in Congress, we’ll be facing another
frustrating four years of rancor and inertia.
Of the 435 House elections in November, only about 100 are truly in
play. Our district is one of them; you
should check to see if your district is too.
Tom’s analysis of the House races can help you with that. Here’s the link:
Comments welcome!
Monday, September 24, 2012
Dashboard Update...It Doesn't Matter Until Election Day? Wrong! (September 24, 2012)
So
you think it doesn’t matter that The Dashboard is solid blue because we still
have 6 weeks (see our new nifty countdown graphic above) to go? With four debates in October? Two more job reports? Middle East uncertainty and who knows what
else?
Think
again. Jane reminds us that voting has
already started, folks…in 25 states no less, including swing states Virginia,
New Hampshire and Missouri. Five more will
begin by the end of the month. Experts
predict that a whopping 35% of voters will cast their ballots before Election Day.
So
that means what is happening right now matters a great deal. Mitt Romney can’t count on a late spending
blitz or strong debate performances, although those are certainly requirements
for him. He has to begin the turnaround
– and yes, despite his protestations otherwise, it is a turnaround that is
required – now.
Obama
has not lost any of his convention bounce, and remains 3-4 points ahead
nationally and ahead in 8 out of 10 swing states. It is entirely possible that the bounce was beginning to recede or would have receded, but the Romney gaffes in his too-quick Libya
tragedy response and the “47% video" seem to have recharged Obama’s momentum.
Swing
States. There were lots of new polls in the swing
states last week. Some were before the
47% video so the impact of that remains in flux. Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin are all quite
solidly in Obama's camp, and North Carolina is now a tie (which I give to the "Charisma Factor" leader).
|
24-Sep
|
Electoral
|
Polling
|
Since
|
8-Sep
|
|
10 states
|
Votes
|
Obama
|
Romney
|
Obama
+/-
|
|
Ohio
|
18
|
48.5
|
43.0
|
5.5
|
|
Wisconsin
|
10
|
50.3
|
45.3
|
5.0
|
|
Virginia
|
13
|
48.3
|
44.0
|
4.3
|
|
Nevada
|
6
|
48.0
|
45.5
|
2.5
|
|
Iowa
|
6
|
47.0
|
44.5
|
2.5
|
|
Colorado
|
9
|
47.7
|
45.7
|
2.0
|
|
Florida
|
29
|
48.0
|
46.5
|
1.5
|
|
North
Carolina
|
15
|
47.0
|
47.0
|
0.0
|
|
New Hampshire
|
4
|
46.5
|
47.5
|
-1.0
|
|
Missouri
|
10
|
45.0
|
48.0
|
-3.0
|
|
120
|
2.2
|
Thus
Obama maintains a very healthy lead in the electoral college projections. Romney does not even achieve 200 electors in this
projection. Obama has 237 solid
electors, which means he needs only 33 more from the swing states for the magic
270.. Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia, his
three strongest swing states, with leads of 4-6 points, total 41...enough alone.
|
270
to win
|
Solid
|
Swing
|
Total
|
|
Obama
|
237
|
106
|
343
|
|
Romney
|
181
|
14
|
195
|
The
Obameter. The Obameter rose to a very blue +13.9 on a
continued strong stock market and no movement on Romney’s favorability. Pew did some research that said Romney is the
only modern candidate from either party to still have a net negative
favorability rating at this stage of the campaign.
|
OBAMETER
|
Baseline
|
|
|
|
|
|
1-Jan
|
9-Sep
|
16-Sep
|
23-Sep
|
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
8.7
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
8.1
|
|
Consumer
Confidence
|
65.0
|
60.6
|
60.6
|
60.6
|
|
Price
of Gas (avg. for week)
|
3.32
|
3.90
|
3.90
|
3.88
|
|
Dow-Jones
(avg. for week)
|
12,076
|
13,155
|
13,406
|
13,535
|
|
Romney
Favorability (avg.)
|
38.0
|
48.0
|
44.5
|
44.7
|
|
"Events"
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Unemployment
Rate
|
8.7
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
Consumer
Confidence
|
65
|
-4
|
-4
|
-4
|
|
Price
of Gas (avg. for week)
|
3.32
|
-6
|
-6
|
-6
|
|
Dow-Jones
(avg. for week)
|
12,076
|
11
|
13
|
15
|
|
Romney
Favorability (avg.)
|
38
|
-10
|
-7
|
-7
|
|
"Events"
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
10
|
|
|
|
|||
|
OBAMETER
|
0.0
|
6.6
|
12.6
|
13.9
|
|
Obama
versus Romney
|
1.1
|
3.3
|
3.4
|
3.6
|
The
Charisma Factor. Obama
continues to maintain a commanding “charisma” lead with net positives well
ahead of Romney, who cannot crack into positive territory himself.
|
|
Fav
|
Unfav
|
Net
|
|
Obama
|
51.0
|
43.3
|
7.7
|
|
Romney
|
44.7
|
45.3
|
-0.6
|
|
Net
|
|
|
8.3
|
Latest National
Polling. Obama holds a 3.6 point lead on average in
the recent national polls. Romney may
think that 47% will never vote for him…the reality is that number may be quite
an underestimate. It seems to be more
like only 47% WILL vote for him (see below).
|
|
Nat'l Polls
|
|
Obama
|
48.3%
|
|
Romney
|
44.6%
|
|
Diff
|
3.6%
|
Popular
Vote Projection. My projection of Obama’s national popular
vote has increased to a 4.5 point lead over Romney, 51.5% to....yes, 47.0%.
|
|
Vote (000)
|
%
|
|
Obama
|
66,955
|
51.5%
|
|
Romney
|
61,045
|
47.0%
|
|
Other
|
1,988
|
1.5%
|
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