The Week in Review...Ryan's (the) Hope (August 17, 2012)

The Week in Review is, of course, all about Paul Ryan.  I have had many good suggestions for plays on Paul Ryan’s last name, among them “Saving Romney’s Campaign” and “Paul Ryan’s Distress” (each, oddly, parodying a war movie).  The best one was probably “Help Me Ryan, Help Help Me Ryan” but that sounds like a (future?) song parody to me. 

Even though I settled on playing off the old soap opera “Ryan’s Hope,” perhaps “Ryan’s Slaughter” (after “Ryan’s Daughter”) is most appropriate?  This might have been a gutsy pick, an ideas pick, an inspiring, energizing pick, an issue-clarifying substance pick – but it sure isn’t a winning pick, and might be a terrible one.

I had posited that Romney might go for a risky pick given his (trailing) position in the polls and the limited opportunity for game-changers that a candidate can control.  But with major downside risk associated with each of Romney's high profile options (Christie, Rice, Rubio and Ryan), I figured the Cautious Calibrating Man would go with Portman after all.

But he didn’t.  So let’s stack up what we know after a week of analysis.  And I’m not talking about anything other than whether this was a pick that increased Romney’s chances of winning.

First the positives:  I think the bottom line is that Romney’s strategy must be this:  he is going to try to energize his base, and not just because he thinks he can win a “base versus base” race, forgetting about the small group of independents.  I think the greater calculation is about money.  The Ryan pick makes Sheldon Adelson happy, Rupert Murdoch (“a perfect pick”) and thus Fox and the Wall Street Journal happy, and thus keeps the money rolling in.  Obama has spent heavily early to define Romney, and flat out won that round.  But Romney is going to try to spend late, probably carpet bombing swing states with negative Obama ads after the convention.  Ryan was easily the best option to drive that strategy – the only option, in fact, that could actually increase Romney's impressive fundraising capabilities.

But wow, are there a lot of negatives.  So many I need bullet points.

• It shifts the dialogue from Romney’s strategy to date – jobs, jobs, jobs – to the Ryan Budget and the deficit.  Wow.  I doubt that shift is a good idea, because…

• …that puts Ryan’s Medicare plans front and center.  Obama has been trying to figure out how to saddle Romney with Ryan's "end Medicare as we know it" Budget for a long time and had just about given up….and then Romney hands it to him.  And thus…

• ...Romney will see his 10-point lead among seniors challenged….seriously challenged.  Which brings me to….

• …Florida, a key swing state (29 electoral votes), a state Romney has to win…and, already behind there, he pretty much just gave it away.  So that he can possibly (but not likely) carry….Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)?  Not to mention that…

• …Democratic Senate and House candidates are already tying their opponents to Ryan’s Budget…every House Republican save 4 voted for it, so the incumbents are on the record, which is particularly unfortunate for them because…

• …Ryan’s budget is, quite simply, not terribly specific.  He has never said exactly how to make up the revenue from trimming income taxes to 25% and 10% and that’s because  the only way to do that is to get rid of the mortgage deduction and other middle class tax  breaks – and thus the tax bill for the middle class will go up while going down for the superrich.  Tough sell.

And then there is the data to date:

• According to Nate Silver, the post-annoucement “bounce” for Romney was a measly 1 point, compared to the normal 4-point bounce the VP announcement normally generates.

• According to Gallup, Ryan is the least popular vice-presidential pick since, um, Dan Quayle.  In polling done after the announcement, compared to similar polling after past VP announcements, Ryan is the most unfavorable and the second least favorable.  (Check out those Dick Cheney numbers while you are at it)

		Fav	Unfav	Net	Never Heard of
Paul Ryan	2012	25	17	8	58
Sarah Palin	2008	22	7	15	71
Joe Biden	2008	34	15	19	51
John Edwards	2004	54	16	38	30
Joe Lieberman	2000	37	10	27	53
Dick Cheney	2000	51	11	40	38
Jack Kemp	1996	56	14	42	30
Al Gore	1992	59	13	46	28

Republican insiders know all this.  There is a good article by Burns and Haberman (politico.com) that says that these Republican inside-the-beltway types feel it is a doomed pick.  They are not happy, not the least because it is more than just the Presidency, it’s the House and Senate races that are hurt by this too.

We’ll see.  Romney has already begun to distance himself – a bit – from Ryan’s Budget (“I have my own plan”).  But hearing him spend the fall comparing “his own” budget to that of his Veep, which is basically only known for his Budget, I mean, huh?

I ask myself the simple question…why would Romney rather talk about Medicare than jobs?  I’ve been watching, reading, surfing about the campaign all week….and everyone, including Romney and Obama, is talking about Medicare!

Comments welcome!