The Dashboard Points to Obama (July 2, 2012)

The Dashboard pushed a bit further toward Obama in the past week…

The Obameter.  The Obameter has climbed to a +6.8 for Obama….somewhat favorable and a modest increase versus last week.  The week did not start as well on the data, with a dip in the stock market and the announcement of the monthly Consumer Confidence Index, which dropped down about 3 points to 62.  But "events" overtook the numbers last week.  First, the immigration issue continued to be a win for Obama, with the Supreme Court verdict that struck down most of the law while retaining the notorious "show me your papers" clause.  And then the Health Care decision, which happened too late in the week to move many numbers but clearly provided a very positive boost in the short-term news cycle and for the long term Obama message.  I gave the highly subjective "event" portion of the Obameter (look on the right hand column for an explanation) a score of 5 points – the first "event" of the campaign, in my view -- for the twin wins for Obama.

OBAMETER
	31-May	4-Jun	11-Jun	18-Jun	25-Jun	2-Jul
Unemployment Rate (beginning)	8.1	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2	8.2
Consumer Confidence (end)	64.9	64.9	64.9	64.9	64.9	62.0
Price of Gas (average for month)	3.79	3.67	3.63	3.59	3.49	3.41
Dow-Jones (average for month)	12,722	12,119	12,332	12,580	12,724	12,625
Romney Favorability (average)	45.2	44.0	44.0	44.0	42.7	42.8
"Events"	0	0	0	0	0	5
Unemployment Rate (beginning)	6	5	5	5	5	5
Consumer Confidence (end)	0	0	0	0	0	-3
Price of Gas (average for month)	-5	-4	-3	-3	-2	-1
Dow-Jones (average for month)	6	0	3	5	6	5
Romney Favorability (average)	-7	-6	-6	-6	-5	-5
"Events"	0	0	0	0	0	5
OBAMETER	0.5	-4.2	-1.6	1.2	5.0	6.8
Obama versus Romney	1.5	-2.0	0.7	-1.5	2.1	3.2

The Charisma Factor.  Recent favorability data shows a slightly widened Obama lead up to +8.3 (the difference between Obama's net favorability of 7.0 and Romney's net favorability of -1.3).  That Romney continues to have a net unfavorability – a negative of just over 44 versus a positive of just under 43 – is not good news for Mitt.  Some of the punditry believes Obama's relentless branding of Romney as an "outsourcer" is doing some damage….if so, pretty modest at this point.  But Romney's previous upward favorability momentum has been stopped cold in the low 40's.

Latest Polling.  This was a very good week of polling for Obama, clearly in the wake of the immigration halo.  Fox, Newsweek, NBC, Democracy Corp and Gallup Daily all show Obama ahead from between 2 and 5 points.  Rasmussen Daily, which typically polls a big further to the right, is, true to form, the only one showing Romney ahead (by 2 points).  I've calculated the average for all the polls as Obama +2.8 points (for polls since June 20^th).

Swing States.  Swing state polls continue to favor Obama as well, albeit narrowly, with the average margin at +1.2 points.  A new poll shows a much larger gap in Arizona, which affected the total number.  Some flipping went on between Ohio (jumping as of now to Obama) and Virginia (to Romney).  Florida widened its lead for Obama while North Carolina narrowed its for Romney.  Overall, the picture remains favorable for Obama.

	Electoral	Polling	Since	6/15
	Votes	Obama	Romney	Obama +/-
Pennsylvania	20	45.0	39.0	6.0
Nevada	6	48.0	42.0	6.0
Ohio	18	47.0	41.0	6.0
Colorado	9	48.0	42.5	5.5
Florida	29	45.0	41.0	4.0
Wisconsin	10	46.5	44.0	2.5
Michigan	16	45.7	44.7	1.0
Iowa	6	45.0	44.0	1.0
North Carolina	15	45.0	45.5	-0.5
Virginia	13	43.0	48.0	-5.0
Missouri	10	42.0	49.0	-7.0
Arizona	11	41.0	54.0	-13.0
	163			1.2

Electoral College Projection.   Using the swing state polling as a guide, Obama continues to have a decent lead in overall projected electoral votes.

	Solid	Swing	Total
Obama	205	114	319
Romney	170	49	219

Obviously it is still early, though as we cross into July, we begin the pre-convention period.  The convention represents the first chance for the candidates to reach out beyond the crazies like me who follow everything and state their case to a reasonably large segment of the American people.  The Republican Convention goes from August 27-30^th in Tampa Bay, Florida, to be followed by the Democrats from September 3^rd-6^th in Charlotte, South Carolina.

But the campaign is heating up, and I continue to believe that Romney needs some sort of catalyst to surge ahead…an "event" of some kind.  And I'm not sure exactly what it is…and I am particularly stumped on how he can initiate one on his own.

As always, comments welcome! 

And come back tomorrow for another post….