2012 02 07 February Minn Col Mo

Who knew?  Just when we (well, me) thought it was time to coronate Mitt, giving him all the February states handily, who does the unthinkable?  RICK SANTORUM!  My god he’s back!  He won Missouri….OK, it was just a “beauty contest” and Newt wasn’t on the ballot.  He won MINNESOTA, whoa baby, that’s pretty impressive.  I mean, the polls said it was possible, but he crushed Mitt.

And that’s not all.  He won COLORADO!!!!  No one gave him a chance there!

A Santorum trifecta?  What in the world does it all mean?  Well:

Very bad news for Romney.  To the various questions about him – he’s not appealing enough, he’s weak on health care, he’s John Kerry without the, uh, pizzazz, blah, blah, blah -- we now can add:  “He can’t win in the Midwest!”  The Midwest?  Home of George Romney?  Land of the Swing States?  Romney’s having trouble in his true home area?  Wow.  So the chatter keeps up.  And, of course, the biggest drumbeat of all is reinforced: he’s not right enough, he’s not a real conservative.  (Plus, he came in third in Minnesota, a state he won in 2008, Tim Pawlenty’s home state, a top surrogate.  But he got pawlenty of nothing...even behind Ron Paul!)

Very bad news for Newt.  Santorum has finally broken through on the right, not as an “I-hit-all-99-counties-in-Iowa-and-was-rewarded” type of winner but instead as a true viable contender.  Gingrich did not really campaign in any of these three contests, surely assuming they were Mitt’s to be had.  He has spent his time in Ohio and in the South, banking on strong showings there on Super Tuesday (Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma).  But now Santorum is a viable contender in those states, and could even knock Newt out that day.

Very bad news for the “Republican Establishment.”  Just when they brought out the big bazookas and pounded Newt into oblivion, Santorum, not Romney, fills the void.  What is the establishment’s next move?  Bash Santorum?  Embrace him guardedly?  Let things play out until Super Tuesday?  Start making phone calls?

GREAT news for Barack Obama.  Wow, instead of facing a steady onslaught of Romney barbs, suddenly Romney has to turn his inner Attack Cyborg onto a new target, Santorum.  Obama is already pretty pleased, because for the first time since June, Obama has cracked 50% in approval rating in two polls this week.  That’s a magic mark for Presidential elections – it’s hard to beat a sitting President who has an approval rating of 50% or more.  Undoubtably this is a function of the jobs report last Friday and the 8.3% unemployment rate, which happens to be exactly what it was on his Inauguration Day.  Finally, he is +6 over Romney in all head-to-head polling in February.

Aside from the announcement of the Maine Caucus (later this week), there are no contests until February 28, the Arizona and Michigan primaries.  And no debates until February 22nd in Arizona.  That one will be a doozie!

I’m going to watch where the candidates go over the next three weeks.  It’s obvious where Newt will go (the South) to regroup, but where Romney, who wants to fight everywhere, and Santorum, who could theoretically go anywhere, focus will be very interesting.

Obviously Romney still has huge money and organizational advantages over the other candidates, but his delegate accumulation strategy is now facing a strong challenge.

So, let’s stop all the VP talk and hunker down!

And time to pull out yet another Rick Santorum campaign song…to the tune of that old Little Peggy March classic, “I Will Follow Him”…..this one is called “I Will Follow Mitt”….

He will follow Mitt, follow him where ever he may run
There isn't a caucus too small, a poll gap so big it can keep
Keep him away…

Santorum!  Santorum!  Santorum!
You really can’t ignore him…ignore him…ignore him!

He will follow Mitt, follow him to Minnesota
A state that Mitt won in oh-eight
But now Rick is changing his fate…

Rick must follow Mitt
Ever since he won Iowa we knew
That near Mitt Rick always must be
And nothing can stop him as he
Screws up Mitt’s destiny….

Santorum!  Santorum!  Santorum!
You really can’t ignore him…ignore him…ignore him!
He’ll always be a nuisance, a nuisance, a nuisance!
Right up to the convention, convention, convention!

He’ll dispense with Newt
Toss him in the nearest garbage bin
He’ll outflank Gingrich out on the right
And show his bark’s worse than his bite
And send him away!
Away from the prize!

Santorum!  Santorum!  Santorum!
He just won in Missouri, Missouri, Missouri
So what if it’s symbolic, symbolic, symbolic?
It sure has got Mitt worried, so worried, so worried

Wolf Blitzer’s in nirvana….
Suddenly the race is on again…
The people will watch after all
The race isn’t done, not at all
It’s too close to call!
It’s too close to call!

Now it’s nearing 10….
Colorado seems to be in play
So what if just 10 votes are in
Santorum has got nine of them!
Can he really sweep?
Should I go to sleep?

Santorum!  Santorum!  Santorum!
You really can’t ignore him…ignore him…ignore him!
Can he really win a trifecta?
As Palin would say…you betcha!
He’s got the Big Mo!
42 states to go!!!!